Allow me first to refer back to my September 2011 article and analysis, “Germany’s Pre-Eminence.” I have not altered this article since its September 21, 2011 release. Germany has since become the world’s third largest exporter, now trailing behind the US, which has advanced significantly in the last few years under an administration that has emphasized growing the country’s exports and as more oil and gas harvesting has made the country more energy independent. Still, Germany is perhaps even more recognized as the economic engine (or stabilizing partner) in the EU. This is enhanced even further by today’s news that the eurozone is officially out of recession, led by 0.7% growth in Germany and 0.5% growth in France. As I mentioned in the previous article two years ago, while many of the fundamentals in Germany’s economy are genuinely strong, there are misconceptions about scope of the relative prosperity there, given that low wages and increasing instability in job security are more prevalent than is spoken about.
I want to address Germany now due to the election coming in September 2013 and to get on the topic early. In 2011 I predicted that the economy would see no more than 1% annualized growth, which appears to be supported by this chart and also by the World Bank 2012 figure of 0.7% growth. As other European nations buckled under austerity and scandals, I also could clearly see that Sarkozy and Berlusconi would be booted out of office, but Angela Merkel would
be the last of the major figures in Europe to still hold office. Now the big question is whether she can maintain another term as Chancellor. Her CDU
party (Christian Democratic Union) party and its Bavarian equivalent are in the lead, but as has been pointed out, with coalitions that does not necessarily mean that she will prevail, particularly with the chief rival party, SPD (Social Democrats) winning some state elections in 2012 and 2013. With Germans simultaneously wanting to have a green economy that backs renewable energy and sustaining a social democratic mixed economy kind of state (for instance, several states have gone back to no out-of-pocket tuition fees for university, against global trends) while wishing to limit subsidies and bailouts to other European countries and at least publicly denounce spying by US institutions and government, Merkel has had to straddle all of these viewpoints to be looked upon favorably.
With all of these competing factors as a backdrop, I wish to put my tarot cards to the test and do so as succinctly as possible. I used my normal prayer and meditation to answer the questions:
Will Angela Merkel succeed in remaining Chancellor of Germany after the September 2013 federal election?
Past and Present: Five of Rods, rev; Knight of Swords
There is a dislike of the party that she represents overall but the people like her generally and see her as competent. The people do not like neoliberalism that much but her character stands out above competitors. There is the classic need to be all things to all people present. There have not been fiery debates so far or any kind of “rawness” to the leading in of the election but it will be very fiery in a week or two and a rhetorical war will emerge. She is being coached very short, quotable “zingers” that will stand out so that her personality dominates discourse and media, leaving it difficult for other names to be present in the minds of voters and observers.
Future: King of Swords, rev; The Sun, rev
It goes against my logical progression of how I see events unfolding, but both cards indicate the possibility of calamity. If she does not assert herself as protectress of justice and the human condition, she cannot win. I see strong arguments being thrown at her by rival left-wing factions that will force her to take a position, at least rhetorically, in this regard. If she seems as though she is too accommodating to any kind of deregulation, she will be painted into a corner she cannot get out of. The Sun in reverse also indicates that she must indicate to the people that there is a long-term commitment to environmentalism. Moving away from nuclear energy, which began in Germany in 2011 in response to the Fukushima disaster in Japan will be addressed, and her response must be convincing that the commitment to migrating away from nuclear energy is still on. Invariably, the approach to what degree the EU is centrally organized underpins this election and moment, and she must indicate that there is more individual autonomy in each nation, and this will be part of any “unveiling” that happens during the main debate and presentation of her platform.
In 2011′s reading in “Germany’s Pre-Eminence” I saw a female leader through roughly the 2015 period, a recent Yahoo article with some gossip supports this idea. As always, I have said that the future is flexible because of the number of variables, but I think that her party will win but have to co-opt the far-left in many regards and take many directives from the Green Party, though I can’t see an actual coalition being formed with the Greens. Again, if she is not prepared to answer to the far-left and has any soundbites that sound unsympathetic to environmental issues and the country’s overall commitment to renewable energy (though there are plenty of arguments against it being profitable now), a major dissolution of government will ensue. That said, I see female stewardship and feminine qualities prevailing in this election. She cannot be attacked for economic management of the country since it is perceived to be doing well except in the case of falling wages or the lack of security in jobs for which she can only fire back with proposed enhancements and improvements in these areas.
What kinds of developments will be the result of the 2013 German federal election?
Future: IV The Emperor; Five of Pentacles, rev
With her victory, in spite of what is being said now to address the demands from the left, it will be more of the same, which is not necessarily a bad thing. Business as usual for a while. The role of Germany in Europe is also expressed here: it is still viewed as the father of the continent and the only country occupying this paternalistic role in the minds and eyes of the world. Four represents stability because essentially most structures have four sides. However, five is a jeopardy number or a crossroads where relationships are tested. This could also refer to 2014 going into 2015. Around this time, I foresee some insolvency issues coming to light. I have always found the strengthening relationship with Russia for energy needs a bit risky and I think that this is a factor in some kind of crisis around this time. This is not a permanently debilitating disaster but could disrupt the balance of left-wing humanist principles with business-forward practice in the country that has the identity of high-end, high-quality exporting capacity.
CONCLUSION: Oftentimes, instead of praying to be correct or to have controlled outcomes, it is best to pray for what delivers the most good and once an election result or other type of decision is made with some permanence, continue to bless all parties involved. Even if someone we dislike wins, we never want to wish failure upon someone or a group because that opens the door for further hostilities and innocent people become ensnared. It is possible for concessions to be made where universal small victories reach all factions and levels of society.